Polls are increasingly showing that it's the economy, stupid. The Iraq War is sinking from the public conciousness, as the situation there continues to improve. Just yesterday, the main Sunni political party has agreed to rejoin the Shiite governing coalition in the Iraq government, bringing more peace and stability to the country.
It's in place for Obama to report from his current World Tour, in such a way that it further minimizes the terrorism threat, and maximizes concern for the economy. This falls right into the current public perception, which is great for Obama and of real concern for McCain.
McCain has admitted his real expertise is national security, defense and terrorism. He hasn't specialized in the economy and domestic affairs. In truth, Obama's resume is too short and his experience too brief to have specialized in anything, but he is naturally laying it on thick and heavy, that only he has the expertise to fix the economy.
Naming his vice presidential running mate will be doubly crucial for McCain. It needs not only to be someone younger than he is, but someone with creditable economic expertise. Some are talking Mitt Romney, due to his demonstrated expertise in business and as Governor of Massachusetts. But McCain doesn't like him personally, and the religious right will be up in arms because he is a Mormon. He couldn't carry Massachusetts, but might help in Michigan, another crucial state.
Former Congressmen Rob Portman of Ohio and Christopher Cox of California are now bureaucrats in the Bush administration, and have demonstrated economic expertise, but probably would tie McCain too tightly to Bush's unpopularity. Portman might help McCain carry Ohio, but Cox would be unable to cause the ticket to carry California.
Governors Charlie Crist of Florida, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Mark Sanford of South Carolina might be of some help on economic expertise. Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi would help the most, given his state's rapid recovery from Hurricane Katrina, but he carries a lot of baggage from his years as a Washington lobbyist and wheeler-dealer, and McCain will probably carry Mississippi anyway, as he will Florida and South Carolina. Pawlenty probably can't guarantee carrying Minnesota, another crucial swing state, either.
McCain faces some critical decisions, on the veep and the economy, in the next few days and weeks--and they may well determine the outcome of the election.
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