The U.S. Senate has suddenly scheduled a vote for tomorrow night on the Wall Street bail-out plan, which has been sweetened with raising the federal insurance on bank accounts from $100,000 to $250,000, and a tax cut package. They evidently think they can get it through the Senate, which would put pressure on the House to switch at least 12 votes and pass it too.
The hope is to switch House Republicans based on the tax cuts, which the House previously rejected, and the added bank account insurance.
John McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden all plan to fly to Washington and vote on the Senate floor. That alone, puts a lot of pressure on the House.
Just a whiff of the possibility of the bail-out resurrection in the Senate hit Wall Street today, and it recouped 485 points of Monday's record 755 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial average.
No one should pinch themselves yet at their good fortune. No one knows how much the bail-out will really help the economy. The tax cuts could do more than the bail-out, and anyone with $250,000 in spare cash to put in a bank account can do a whole lot better with it than leaving it in a federally-insured bank account.
The whole thing is probably smoke and mirrors. The appearance of action is more important than the action itself. Such is life.
The overwhelming hypocrisy of this whole mess still is astounding. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are at the bottom of the whole mess, quasi-government agencies that buy mortgage loans. Barney Frank, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and many others took major political contributions from the agencies, and then loosened up the lending standards and oversight, allegedly to facilitate more minority and low income homeowners.
That now these people now would be bailing-out their own incompetence and conflict of interest, defies credulity. But what can I say--welcome to Washington D.C.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
Pelosi sabotaged bail-out package
Democrats are famous for over-playing their hand. The classic was the "funeral" for Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone, killed in a plane crash, and enmeshed in a tight re-election campaign with now-Sen. Norm Coleman.
The "funeral" was nationally televised, and the Democrats took it as a time to beat up on Republicans in prime time. There was no spiritual side to the event, precious little mourning of Wellstone or comforting of his family. It was just a steady drumbeat of digs at President Bush and the Republicans in Congress--and showcasing their replacement nominee for Wellstone, former Vice President Walter Mondale. It was crass, naked politics from the get-go, and the public wasn't buying.
Mondale was defeated handily by Coleman, and Republicans ran better than expected in races across the country.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi performed a similar act today, in her pre-vote speech on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives, excoriating President Bush and the Republicans for the present financial crisis. The votes were counted for a tight win on the bail-out bill, or it would never have been brought up for a vote. Pelosi poured gasoline on the fire, rather than doing what she claimed to want to do: reach across the aisle for a bipartisan solution.
Of course she drove away at least the 12 Republican votes that could have passed the package. It was as transparent and real as if she had clobbered 12 solons over the head with a baseball bat. But it was overkill.
Americans are already weighing in that the bill was a heavy-handed federal power grab that socializes the economy and does irreparable damage to the free enterprise system. Republicans who defeated it are already being cast as heroes.
The tide is turning away from the Democrats, who increasingly look like the power-mad opportunists they actually are, and are about to suffer a fate similar to Mondale's.
Mark my words--Pelosi overplayed her hand. She snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
The "funeral" was nationally televised, and the Democrats took it as a time to beat up on Republicans in prime time. There was no spiritual side to the event, precious little mourning of Wellstone or comforting of his family. It was just a steady drumbeat of digs at President Bush and the Republicans in Congress--and showcasing their replacement nominee for Wellstone, former Vice President Walter Mondale. It was crass, naked politics from the get-go, and the public wasn't buying.
Mondale was defeated handily by Coleman, and Republicans ran better than expected in races across the country.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi performed a similar act today, in her pre-vote speech on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives, excoriating President Bush and the Republicans for the present financial crisis. The votes were counted for a tight win on the bail-out bill, or it would never have been brought up for a vote. Pelosi poured gasoline on the fire, rather than doing what she claimed to want to do: reach across the aisle for a bipartisan solution.
Of course she drove away at least the 12 Republican votes that could have passed the package. It was as transparent and real as if she had clobbered 12 solons over the head with a baseball bat. But it was overkill.
Americans are already weighing in that the bill was a heavy-handed federal power grab that socializes the economy and does irreparable damage to the free enterprise system. Republicans who defeated it are already being cast as heroes.
The tide is turning away from the Democrats, who increasingly look like the power-mad opportunists they actually are, and are about to suffer a fate similar to Mondale's.
Mark my words--Pelosi overplayed her hand. She snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Low Palin debate expectations her trump card
The 36-year Washington hand, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, should wipe the floor with Sarah Palin in the vice presidential debate this week. He is the vaunted chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, with depth and experience, who looks like a Commander-in-Chief.
Some 20 years older than Palin, with only a few years in politics in Alaska under her belt, his persona and swagger should carry the day.
But that's been the problem with Joe Biden, and why neither of his two presidential campaigns have approached even a 10% standing in the polls. He can lecture for hours, seem arrogant and upper-handed, suffering fools badly.
This is the perfect situation for Sarah Palin to walk into. The press thinks she is a lightweight, and cannot possibly stand up to the beknighted Biden.
Mrs. Palin is very glib and good on her feet, looks as charismatic and inviting as Biden does old and dull. She won't have to say much to steal the show. Especially if Biden Lords it over her, and is as condescending as he's been known to be.
As long as Palin does not commit a major gaffe, and is as charming, self-assured and vital as usual, she should handle Biden just fine. In fact, he is usually his own worst enemy.
Prepare to be surprised.
Some 20 years older than Palin, with only a few years in politics in Alaska under her belt, his persona and swagger should carry the day.
But that's been the problem with Joe Biden, and why neither of his two presidential campaigns have approached even a 10% standing in the polls. He can lecture for hours, seem arrogant and upper-handed, suffering fools badly.
This is the perfect situation for Sarah Palin to walk into. The press thinks she is a lightweight, and cannot possibly stand up to the beknighted Biden.
Mrs. Palin is very glib and good on her feet, looks as charismatic and inviting as Biden does old and dull. She won't have to say much to steal the show. Especially if Biden Lords it over her, and is as condescending as he's been known to be.
As long as Palin does not commit a major gaffe, and is as charming, self-assured and vital as usual, she should handle Biden just fine. In fact, he is usually his own worst enemy.
Prepare to be surprised.
Friday, September 26, 2008
McCain looked, acted presidential in debate
John McCain looked like, and acted, like a president in the first televised debate this evening, while Obama was very stern and steely-eyed, he did not have the ready smile or easy command of the facts that McCain did.
Obama's inexperience showed, as he was constantly snipping and sniveling at McCain, and mainly repeating familiar Democratic talking points in an attempt to parry McCain's thrusts.
The hardbitten liberal JIm Lehrer, the very nominally objective moderator of the debate, did his best to cut McCain off when he was scoring points, and to keep Obama in the debate, but McCain was still able to overcome the double whammy.
Just as McCain was the leader in going back to Washington to do what he could in the Wall Street bail-out debate, while Obama said he was staying in touch by phone, McCain showed again in tonight's debate that he is a leader and Obama a follower.
The Democratic lie to try and over for Obama's incompetence in the bail-out debate, that a deal was in place until McCain came back and screwed it up--is just that, a lie. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, a rookie Democrat, let the cat out of the bag, pointing out that no deal was in place for McCain to screw up.
As expected, the liberal mass media is doing its best to cut down McCain and build up the pedestrian performance of Barack Obama. But the voters saw what actually happened, and the media spin won't cover it over.
Obama's inexperience showed, as he was constantly snipping and sniveling at McCain, and mainly repeating familiar Democratic talking points in an attempt to parry McCain's thrusts.
The hardbitten liberal JIm Lehrer, the very nominally objective moderator of the debate, did his best to cut McCain off when he was scoring points, and to keep Obama in the debate, but McCain was still able to overcome the double whammy.
Just as McCain was the leader in going back to Washington to do what he could in the Wall Street bail-out debate, while Obama said he was staying in touch by phone, McCain showed again in tonight's debate that he is a leader and Obama a follower.
The Democratic lie to try and over for Obama's incompetence in the bail-out debate, that a deal was in place until McCain came back and screwed it up--is just that, a lie. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, a rookie Democrat, let the cat out of the bag, pointing out that no deal was in place for McCain to screw up.
As expected, the liberal mass media is doing its best to cut down McCain and build up the pedestrian performance of Barack Obama. But the voters saw what actually happened, and the media spin won't cover it over.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
House GOP holds up bail-out deal
In a strange time for suddenly standing up for principle and the taxpayers, House Republicans stand in the way of a bail-out deal that can pass Congress. It is strange, because all during the last two years, the House GOP has been the handmaidens of Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid--rarely standing up for anything, until the end of summer, when they blasted the summer recess, when so much business remained undone.
There has been some success from the venture, particularly the focus on Pelosi failing to allow a vote on lifting the ban on off-shore oil drilling. Democrats came back from the recess with the word from constituents that drilling must proceed. The Democratic plan would only have allowed limited drilling, if any at all, but the ban expires Sept. 30 anyway and so by doing nothing, the pro-drilling forces win.
The real problem is that the bail-out focus has been wrong from the gitgo, and now the House GOP is in open rebellion against the rest of the party. The focus should be on how little the bail-out might cost, since restoring liquidity to the nation's financial system should raise housing prices and stabilize the market.
This, as much as anything, is what will assure that taxpayers get hit the least for the bail-out, since the houses underlying the mortgages will be able to be sold off for more than is owed on them. Over a period of time, with wise management of the bail-out, taxpayers could pay little or nothing.
The focus instead has been on the $700 billion cost to taxpayers, which is unlikely even in the worst of circumstances, allowing the whole proposal to be weighted down in presidential and congressional campaign politics--and a quickly approaching recession and national pain the likely result.
John McCain tried to step forward as a statesman and bring a positive resolution, but it may be too bogged down, with too much baggage, to be salvageable.
There has been some success from the venture, particularly the focus on Pelosi failing to allow a vote on lifting the ban on off-shore oil drilling. Democrats came back from the recess with the word from constituents that drilling must proceed. The Democratic plan would only have allowed limited drilling, if any at all, but the ban expires Sept. 30 anyway and so by doing nothing, the pro-drilling forces win.
The real problem is that the bail-out focus has been wrong from the gitgo, and now the House GOP is in open rebellion against the rest of the party. The focus should be on how little the bail-out might cost, since restoring liquidity to the nation's financial system should raise housing prices and stabilize the market.
This, as much as anything, is what will assure that taxpayers get hit the least for the bail-out, since the houses underlying the mortgages will be able to be sold off for more than is owed on them. Over a period of time, with wise management of the bail-out, taxpayers could pay little or nothing.
The focus instead has been on the $700 billion cost to taxpayers, which is unlikely even in the worst of circumstances, allowing the whole proposal to be weighted down in presidential and congressional campaign politics--and a quickly approaching recession and national pain the likely result.
John McCain tried to step forward as a statesman and bring a positive resolution, but it may be too bogged down, with too much baggage, to be salvageable.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Pot calling kettle black on the bail-out
The genesis of the loosened lending standards and defaulted home mortgage loans lies with the liberal Democrats in Congress, who passed legislation directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand minority and lower income home ownership in the U.S. by easing qualification for loans and financing up to 100% of a home's purchase price.
Almost any good professional banker could tell you that this was a recipe for disaster, before the first loan was ever made. The more of his own money a buyer has in a property, the more committed he is to making the sacrifices necessary to stay with it. Without any of his own money involved, there is no commitment. He sees the home like a rental, that he can easily walk away from, and tens of thousands have.
Additionally, the Clinton administration used Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as sinecures for their friends who needed jobs, elbowing out the professional, knowledgeable lenders who could have prevented the crisis. Franklin Raines, Jamie Gorelick and James Johnson were up to their elbows in the mess. They also led the lending concerns in making generous political contributions to their friends on Capitol Hill, and the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.
The whole system, as it degenerated to the present day, was almost a prescription for disaster.
The massive hypocrisy coming out now in Congress, in lambasting Bush's plan to rescue the system, would be laughable, if it wasn't so tragic. Those who have the least right to say anything, given their votes to create the present system and take campaign money from it, are running the show in Congress.
John McCain is scaring Democrats to death, suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to exercise his role as a Senator and try to craft legislation to solve the problem. Duty to country by putting it first, and politicking second, is totally foreign to the standard Washington modus operandi. Just as with the selection of Sarah Palin, Democrats don't know who to act.
It ought to be an interesting next few days.
Almost any good professional banker could tell you that this was a recipe for disaster, before the first loan was ever made. The more of his own money a buyer has in a property, the more committed he is to making the sacrifices necessary to stay with it. Without any of his own money involved, there is no commitment. He sees the home like a rental, that he can easily walk away from, and tens of thousands have.
Additionally, the Clinton administration used Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as sinecures for their friends who needed jobs, elbowing out the professional, knowledgeable lenders who could have prevented the crisis. Franklin Raines, Jamie Gorelick and James Johnson were up to their elbows in the mess. They also led the lending concerns in making generous political contributions to their friends on Capitol Hill, and the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.
The whole system, as it degenerated to the present day, was almost a prescription for disaster.
The massive hypocrisy coming out now in Congress, in lambasting Bush's plan to rescue the system, would be laughable, if it wasn't so tragic. Those who have the least right to say anything, given their votes to create the present system and take campaign money from it, are running the show in Congress.
John McCain is scaring Democrats to death, suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to exercise his role as a Senator and try to craft legislation to solve the problem. Duty to country by putting it first, and politicking second, is totally foreign to the standard Washington modus operandi. Just as with the selection of Sarah Palin, Democrats don't know who to act.
It ought to be an interesting next few days.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Taxpayers could profit from mortgage bail-out
Lost in all the verbal-overkill of the news coverage of the proposed $700 billion bailout of bad home mortgages, is that the federal government could wind up making a profit, rather than costing the taxpayers anything.
The most famous case was the bail-out of Chrysler Corporation in 1987. In the form of loan guarantees, it provided the capital the firm was unable to raise on its own at the time. Later, when the company was sold to the German firm Daimler, the federal government made over $300 million for its effort.
Lost in all the media onslaught, is the fact that each of the troubled home mortgages is secured by a home, which has value and will be sold. That will bail out a big portion of the loan by itself. Some additional funds will be raised by a deficiency judgement against each borrower for the difference between the amount of the loan and what the home sold for.
Those deficiency judgements will be bundled up and sold by the feds to private firms at a steep discount, who will then profit from collecting them.
This is how the old Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) worked, which was the bail-out of the failed Savings and Loan institutions back in the 1990s. It did wind up costing the taxpayers some money, but nothing like the total amount authorized by Congress.
A similar outcome, maybe even a profitable one, can be expected from this latest bail-out, if Congress ever gets around to approving it.
Congress' own balky, nefarious, self-serving hand wringing is deepening the crisis by the hour. Today, the stock markets actually opened up over 100 points, but by the time all the distinguished solons seeking facetime on television had performed in Congress, the market dropped like a rock.
The time is here for courageous action--admittedly not a strong suit in Washington--and less personal aggrandizement, even if it is an election year.
The most famous case was the bail-out of Chrysler Corporation in 1987. In the form of loan guarantees, it provided the capital the firm was unable to raise on its own at the time. Later, when the company was sold to the German firm Daimler, the federal government made over $300 million for its effort.
Lost in all the media onslaught, is the fact that each of the troubled home mortgages is secured by a home, which has value and will be sold. That will bail out a big portion of the loan by itself. Some additional funds will be raised by a deficiency judgement against each borrower for the difference between the amount of the loan and what the home sold for.
Those deficiency judgements will be bundled up and sold by the feds to private firms at a steep discount, who will then profit from collecting them.
This is how the old Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) worked, which was the bail-out of the failed Savings and Loan institutions back in the 1990s. It did wind up costing the taxpayers some money, but nothing like the total amount authorized by Congress.
A similar outcome, maybe even a profitable one, can be expected from this latest bail-out, if Congress ever gets around to approving it.
Congress' own balky, nefarious, self-serving hand wringing is deepening the crisis by the hour. Today, the stock markets actually opened up over 100 points, but by the time all the distinguished solons seeking facetime on television had performed in Congress, the market dropped like a rock.
The time is here for courageous action--admittedly not a strong suit in Washington--and less personal aggrandizement, even if it is an election year.
Monday, September 22, 2008
What's the alternative?
Life is full of so-called Hobson's Choices. My history knowledge has faded enough that I don't remember who Hobson was, or how he had the discovery, but I do know what it means. I face it everyday, and I'm sure you do too.
A Hobson's Choice is the often-faced dilemma of picking between two equally bad alternatives. There is no good thing to do, but simply selecting the least worst thing to do.
That's what's facing Congress this week with the $700 billion bail-out of bad mortgage loans. As costly and hideous as the bail-out is, what does the alternative look like?
A complete crash of the world's financial system would not be a pretty sight. People are not steeled, as they were during the Great Depression of the 1930s, to saving and scrimping by. Americans today have never had to do without, or make do. They may have to select a less costly choice, but basically get what they want.
The liberal Democrats have treated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as personal piggybanks for years, funding whatever social schemes and dreams they wanted, and setting up lucrative sinecures for their buddies like Franklin Raines, James Johnson and Jamie Gorelick, when they needed a soft place to land.
The liberal orthodoxy was to get women and minority groups into home ownership, and wave the credit qualifications to do it. Fannie and Freddie bought the dubious loans from private lenders, which gave them the privilege of being the first ones to be bailed out in the current wave.
Franklin Raines, in particular, havested up huge salary and bonuses during his tenure there, as did Johnson and Gorelick. It was so odious that Al Gore had to pay the price for his friendship with Raines, and Obama had to remove Johnson from his vice presidential search committee, he was so tainted. Gorelick could well have caused 9/11, when as number two at the Department of Justice, she put a wall between the CIA and FBI to keep them from sharing information, crippling our national intelligence gathering capabilities. She was even able to cover for herself, when as a member of President Bush's task force, she could oversee the whitewashing of her role.
Now, we taxpayers are on the hook for $700 billion to cover the liberal's chicanery. You won't read that in the popular press.
A Hobson's Choice is the often-faced dilemma of picking between two equally bad alternatives. There is no good thing to do, but simply selecting the least worst thing to do.
That's what's facing Congress this week with the $700 billion bail-out of bad mortgage loans. As costly and hideous as the bail-out is, what does the alternative look like?
A complete crash of the world's financial system would not be a pretty sight. People are not steeled, as they were during the Great Depression of the 1930s, to saving and scrimping by. Americans today have never had to do without, or make do. They may have to select a less costly choice, but basically get what they want.
The liberal Democrats have treated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as personal piggybanks for years, funding whatever social schemes and dreams they wanted, and setting up lucrative sinecures for their buddies like Franklin Raines, James Johnson and Jamie Gorelick, when they needed a soft place to land.
The liberal orthodoxy was to get women and minority groups into home ownership, and wave the credit qualifications to do it. Fannie and Freddie bought the dubious loans from private lenders, which gave them the privilege of being the first ones to be bailed out in the current wave.
Franklin Raines, in particular, havested up huge salary and bonuses during his tenure there, as did Johnson and Gorelick. It was so odious that Al Gore had to pay the price for his friendship with Raines, and Obama had to remove Johnson from his vice presidential search committee, he was so tainted. Gorelick could well have caused 9/11, when as number two at the Department of Justice, she put a wall between the CIA and FBI to keep them from sharing information, crippling our national intelligence gathering capabilities. She was even able to cover for herself, when as a member of President Bush's task force, she could oversee the whitewashing of her role.
Now, we taxpayers are on the hook for $700 billion to cover the liberal's chicanery. You won't read that in the popular press.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Biden, mercifully for Dems, anonymous so far
The forgotten man so far in the 2008 presidential campaign is the Democratic vice presidential nominee, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden. They're even having trouble getting reporters to ride on his campaign plane, with only six present on a recent foray. GOP veep candidate Sarah Palin's plane was recently overweight, so many reporters were along, and a few had to be asked to ride commercial to the next stop.
This isn't a problem for the Democrats, but for the Republicans. Biden, famous for sinking his own presidential campaigns, has already made so many gaffes that the Obama-Biden ticket should be sunk already. Due to the lack of publicity, Obama has snuck by. It isn't just the liberal bias of the press keeping Biden's verbal slips quiet--they weren't even there.
A staunch Obama supporter is Missouri State Sen. Chuck Harrison, who is confined to a wheelchair. At a recent rally, Biden enthusiastically shouted out the names of prominent people at the rally, from a list provided by local supporters. With great bonhomie, Biden introduced Harrison, bellowing "Stand up Chuck, let the people see you!" Horrified local Democrats rushed to Biden, who tried to recover by trumpeting Harrison's courage in the face of adversity.
At another stop, Biden said Hillary Clinton would have been a better vice presidential pick. He was right, but did nothing for Obama's reputation for decision-making by pointing out the obvious. (I can't blame Obama. Can you imagine being president, with Hillary Clinton a heartbeat away from the presidency, after what happened to Commerce Secretary Ron Brown and Presidential Counselor Vince Foster? The strain on the Secret Service, alone, would be unbelievable.)
Biden has always had a magnificent facility for saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he called for dividing Iraq into separate Sunni, Shiite and Kurd states. It was widely panned, particularly by the Iraqis themselves, and considered wrong by many noted foreign policy scholars and experts.
Biden's first presidential campaign blew up after it was disclosed he plagarized a speech by British Foreign Secretary Neal Kinnock, delivering it as his own. Biden is famous for his long-winded, overblown speeches at the drop of a hat--rarely being brief enough to produce the pithy, treasured 30-second television soundbite for the evening news shows.
It's merciful for the Democrats that Biden is out of the loop.
This isn't a problem for the Democrats, but for the Republicans. Biden, famous for sinking his own presidential campaigns, has already made so many gaffes that the Obama-Biden ticket should be sunk already. Due to the lack of publicity, Obama has snuck by. It isn't just the liberal bias of the press keeping Biden's verbal slips quiet--they weren't even there.
A staunch Obama supporter is Missouri State Sen. Chuck Harrison, who is confined to a wheelchair. At a recent rally, Biden enthusiastically shouted out the names of prominent people at the rally, from a list provided by local supporters. With great bonhomie, Biden introduced Harrison, bellowing "Stand up Chuck, let the people see you!" Horrified local Democrats rushed to Biden, who tried to recover by trumpeting Harrison's courage in the face of adversity.
At another stop, Biden said Hillary Clinton would have been a better vice presidential pick. He was right, but did nothing for Obama's reputation for decision-making by pointing out the obvious. (I can't blame Obama. Can you imagine being president, with Hillary Clinton a heartbeat away from the presidency, after what happened to Commerce Secretary Ron Brown and Presidential Counselor Vince Foster? The strain on the Secret Service, alone, would be unbelievable.)
Biden has always had a magnificent facility for saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he called for dividing Iraq into separate Sunni, Shiite and Kurd states. It was widely panned, particularly by the Iraqis themselves, and considered wrong by many noted foreign policy scholars and experts.
Biden's first presidential campaign blew up after it was disclosed he plagarized a speech by British Foreign Secretary Neal Kinnock, delivering it as his own. Biden is famous for his long-winded, overblown speeches at the drop of a hat--rarely being brief enough to produce the pithy, treasured 30-second television soundbite for the evening news shows.
It's merciful for the Democrats that Biden is out of the loop.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Desperate Dems grasping at straws
The national news media is doing its best to keep Barack Obama positioned in the presidential race, but it may be a losing battle. Despite polls such as the CNN composite "poll of polls" showing the race with John McCain within a point or two, state polls in key battlegrounds are not nearly so accomodating.
The race is decided in the Electoral College, not the popular vote, and McCain is running like a trojan in key Democratic strongholds, where President Bush never did win. In Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, McCain is well within the margin of error in local polls. If he and Obama each carry just the states Bush and Kerry did four years ago, and McCain carries any one of these states, he wins the election.
There isn't much danger of Obama carrying any major Bush states. McCain is running strong in states Obama likes to claim he is fighting in: Virginia, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. Sarah Palin solidified McCain's base and then some, greatly narrowly what little chance Obama had in these states. I'm glad to see the media paint Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada as deciding the election, so we get to see the candidates in here so often.
However, if McCain carries any one of the big Democratic states he is within striking distance of, these smaller Western states won't matter. In fact, its folly to think that neighbor John McCain, who's home state of Arizona borders these three states, would lose all three. There's a greater likelihood he'll carry all three.
The economic crisis really isn't playing out in Obama's favor. The Democrats in Congress do not dare politicize the legislation coming through this week to deal with it, as the public is accepting that it is a dire national emergency and that action is needed urgently.
The elephant in the room, which nobody except me is brave enough to talk about, is that Black Democratic candidates usually run about 5% behind what the polls show, as a lot of white folks talk a good game to pollsters, but their prejudices come out in the secrecy of the voting booth. If this proves to be true, Obama needs to show up at least 5% better in the polls than McCain. Ask Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, if he were still alive, about his campaign for Governor and former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder about his narrow win, after leading stealthily in the polls.
As they say, its never over 'til its over--but McCain looks like a pretty good bet at this juncture.
The race is decided in the Electoral College, not the popular vote, and McCain is running like a trojan in key Democratic strongholds, where President Bush never did win. In Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, McCain is well within the margin of error in local polls. If he and Obama each carry just the states Bush and Kerry did four years ago, and McCain carries any one of these states, he wins the election.
There isn't much danger of Obama carrying any major Bush states. McCain is running strong in states Obama likes to claim he is fighting in: Virginia, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. Sarah Palin solidified McCain's base and then some, greatly narrowly what little chance Obama had in these states. I'm glad to see the media paint Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada as deciding the election, so we get to see the candidates in here so often.
However, if McCain carries any one of the big Democratic states he is within striking distance of, these smaller Western states won't matter. In fact, its folly to think that neighbor John McCain, who's home state of Arizona borders these three states, would lose all three. There's a greater likelihood he'll carry all three.
The economic crisis really isn't playing out in Obama's favor. The Democrats in Congress do not dare politicize the legislation coming through this week to deal with it, as the public is accepting that it is a dire national emergency and that action is needed urgently.
The elephant in the room, which nobody except me is brave enough to talk about, is that Black Democratic candidates usually run about 5% behind what the polls show, as a lot of white folks talk a good game to pollsters, but their prejudices come out in the secrecy of the voting booth. If this proves to be true, Obama needs to show up at least 5% better in the polls than McCain. Ask Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, if he were still alive, about his campaign for Governor and former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder about his narrow win, after leading stealthily in the polls.
As they say, its never over 'til its over--but McCain looks like a pretty good bet at this juncture.
Friday, September 19, 2008
It's socialism any way you slice it
The sense of inevitabiliy and sighing by John Q. Public in accepting the federal bail-out of financial institutions and the economy is breathtaking. The mass socialism being foisted on us by the pols, and our meek acceptance of it, is unprecedented.
You'd hope people would fight if Vladimir Putin marched onto U.S. soil and did the the same thing to us, imposing his collectivist will by military might. The old saying is that there are two ways to rob a man--with a gun or with a fountain pen.
Our freedom is being taken by the latter, and yet there is barely a whimper.
The notion that only government can save us from ourselves has never been generally accepted before. Today, everyone is laying down and saying "kick me one more time, it feels good."
The Weimar Republic in Germany and numerous other governments have fallen, and systems came crashing down, by diluting the soup of the currency with the government printing press. But that's what we're doing now, and no one seems to be the wiser.
It is like Nikita Krushchev, the grizzled shoe-pounding Soviet dictator, said in the 1960s, "We'll bury you, and some capitalist will hand us the shovel."
We're doing that to ourselves right now, right before our very eyes--and no one is lifting a finger to protest or complain. We've seen the enemy, the old warrior said, and it is us.
You'd hope people would fight if Vladimir Putin marched onto U.S. soil and did the the same thing to us, imposing his collectivist will by military might. The old saying is that there are two ways to rob a man--with a gun or with a fountain pen.
Our freedom is being taken by the latter, and yet there is barely a whimper.
The notion that only government can save us from ourselves has never been generally accepted before. Today, everyone is laying down and saying "kick me one more time, it feels good."
The Weimar Republic in Germany and numerous other governments have fallen, and systems came crashing down, by diluting the soup of the currency with the government printing press. But that's what we're doing now, and no one seems to be the wiser.
It is like Nikita Krushchev, the grizzled shoe-pounding Soviet dictator, said in the 1960s, "We'll bury you, and some capitalist will hand us the shovel."
We're doing that to ourselves right now, right before our very eyes--and no one is lifting a finger to protest or complain. We've seen the enemy, the old warrior said, and it is us.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
And this too shall pass
The gloom and doom on Wall Street, which Obama and the Democrats are trying to hard to exploit for political gain, will pass.
The market has over-reacted, as it frequently does, to some tough economic news, and it will recover, probably before the November election. What goes up must come down.
While McCain is backtracking from his assertion that the economy is fundamentally sound, he was right. A temporary burble or two does not a depression make.
The U.S. economy has been in far worse shape than it is now, and probably will be again some day. As long as the feds can print money to cover collapses like AIG and Goldman Sachs, and force deals like the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America and Lehman Brothers to Barclay's--the economy will not crater.
The housing crisis, the burst bubble behind the current problems, was manufactured by liberals in Congress, who forced lenders to end redlining and make housing loans to unqualified borrowers. They subsidized it through quasi-federal agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and bailed them out too, when they got in trouble as a result.
The answer is to let free markets operate unfettered, and let lenders restore reasonable credit standards to making loans.
It will strengthen the economy and restore the stock market. The economy doesn't need a political solution--if there is such a thing. It needs to be left alone, and allowed to heal up and recover on its own.
The market has over-reacted, as it frequently does, to some tough economic news, and it will recover, probably before the November election. What goes up must come down.
While McCain is backtracking from his assertion that the economy is fundamentally sound, he was right. A temporary burble or two does not a depression make.
The U.S. economy has been in far worse shape than it is now, and probably will be again some day. As long as the feds can print money to cover collapses like AIG and Goldman Sachs, and force deals like the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America and Lehman Brothers to Barclay's--the economy will not crater.
The housing crisis, the burst bubble behind the current problems, was manufactured by liberals in Congress, who forced lenders to end redlining and make housing loans to unqualified borrowers. They subsidized it through quasi-federal agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and bailed them out too, when they got in trouble as a result.
The answer is to let free markets operate unfettered, and let lenders restore reasonable credit standards to making loans.
It will strengthen the economy and restore the stock market. The economy doesn't need a political solution--if there is such a thing. It needs to be left alone, and allowed to heal up and recover on its own.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Election excitement hits Colorado
For whatever reason, Colorado with its nine electoral votes, is "in play" this year, as a key determiner in the presidential contest.
For years, candidates flew over the Rocky Mountain and plains states, on their way from the vote-rich East and Midwest, on their way to California. Barack Obama spoke in Grand Junction, Colorado yesterday, the first Democrat since Harry Truman to campaign there as a presidential candidate.
This still seems questionable on a raw numbers basis, as big states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio are very close in the polls. It takes all the Rocky Mountain states together to equal what one of the biggies will do for your campaign in the Electoral College. And yet, Colorado broadcast airways are full of expensive presidential campaign commercials.
After Obama was here for the Democratic National Convention in late August, John McCain and Sarah Palin together were in Colorado Springs a week ago. This week, Palin was in Golden Monday, while Obama spent a day and a half here, visiting Golden again and Pueblo, in addition to the Grand Junction stop.
Colorado has a narrow plurality of registered Republicans, with Independents next and Democrats third among the registered voters. Bush carried the state both times, but more recently we have elected a Democratic governor in Bill Ritter, U.S. Senator in Ken Salazar and a majority of the seven-member congressional delegation are currently Democrats. That's why Obama thinks there's hope.
We undoubtedly have not seen the last of the major party candidates in the remaining 49 days until the election, unless one or the other jumps out into a big lead in the polls. McCain is from neighboring Arizona, so should sweep the Rocky Mountain states--but such a trend is not apparent yet.
We'll just continue to bask in the glow of all the attention.
For years, candidates flew over the Rocky Mountain and plains states, on their way from the vote-rich East and Midwest, on their way to California. Barack Obama spoke in Grand Junction, Colorado yesterday, the first Democrat since Harry Truman to campaign there as a presidential candidate.
This still seems questionable on a raw numbers basis, as big states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio are very close in the polls. It takes all the Rocky Mountain states together to equal what one of the biggies will do for your campaign in the Electoral College. And yet, Colorado broadcast airways are full of expensive presidential campaign commercials.
After Obama was here for the Democratic National Convention in late August, John McCain and Sarah Palin together were in Colorado Springs a week ago. This week, Palin was in Golden Monday, while Obama spent a day and a half here, visiting Golden again and Pueblo, in addition to the Grand Junction stop.
Colorado has a narrow plurality of registered Republicans, with Independents next and Democrats third among the registered voters. Bush carried the state both times, but more recently we have elected a Democratic governor in Bill Ritter, U.S. Senator in Ken Salazar and a majority of the seven-member congressional delegation are currently Democrats. That's why Obama thinks there's hope.
We undoubtedly have not seen the last of the major party candidates in the remaining 49 days until the election, unless one or the other jumps out into a big lead in the polls. McCain is from neighboring Arizona, so should sweep the Rocky Mountain states--but such a trend is not apparent yet.
We'll just continue to bask in the glow of all the attention.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Obama drops vision, becomes attack dog
The old saying is "dance with the one who brung ya."
Obama has abandoned the soaring rhetoric, the gauzy, fuzzy, feel good phrases in his stump speeches. He sounds like Al Gore or John Kerry, in the old liberal attack dog mode of "Hate Bush." Having little luck running against John McCain and Sarah Palin, he has fallen out of the visionary, futuristic "dream with me" of his early campaign, back into the same old Democratic tactics.
They failed in the last two elections, and almost certainly will this time. George Bush is term limited and can't run again. He is not a candidate in this election, and America is ready to move on. Obama is virtually abandoning the change theme to McCain and Palin.
As tragic as the big Wall Street blowout was today, and the inevitable collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, blaming it on Bush is hardly going to gain credibility with the American people. Particularly since it was the liberals in Congress who outlawed redlining and virtually demanded that lenders make housing loans to unqualified people.
When the loans defaulted and brought the collapse of the lenders, hardly a surprise, it can't be credibly put at Bush's door. Obama has got to do better than that.
America is tired of sniveling and finger-pointing. They want solutions and and liberation from the past. McCain and Palin have seized on that, co-opting Obama's own message and rhetoric. Unless he returns to the vision and future message, he is a dead duck.
Obama has abandoned the soaring rhetoric, the gauzy, fuzzy, feel good phrases in his stump speeches. He sounds like Al Gore or John Kerry, in the old liberal attack dog mode of "Hate Bush." Having little luck running against John McCain and Sarah Palin, he has fallen out of the visionary, futuristic "dream with me" of his early campaign, back into the same old Democratic tactics.
They failed in the last two elections, and almost certainly will this time. George Bush is term limited and can't run again. He is not a candidate in this election, and America is ready to move on. Obama is virtually abandoning the change theme to McCain and Palin.
As tragic as the big Wall Street blowout was today, and the inevitable collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, blaming it on Bush is hardly going to gain credibility with the American people. Particularly since it was the liberals in Congress who outlawed redlining and virtually demanded that lenders make housing loans to unqualified people.
When the loans defaulted and brought the collapse of the lenders, hardly a surprise, it can't be credibly put at Bush's door. Obama has got to do better than that.
America is tired of sniveling and finger-pointing. They want solutions and and liberation from the past. McCain and Palin have seized on that, co-opting Obama's own message and rhetoric. Unless he returns to the vision and future message, he is a dead duck.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Stock market shakeout helps Obama
The last week's plunge of the Dow Jones Industrial average has left investors counting their pennies, and looking at their hole card.
It hasn't been a real rippy-dippy year in the Stock Market anyway, and the last week makes it much worse. There are always jitters at elecction time, and this will be the shortest presidential campaign in history, with just 60 days left until the election. Then the stock market will settle down at some level or another.
I'm no stock picker or market timer, but at some point investors will find stocks cheap and leap back into the market and it will go up. Are we at such a bottom right now? If I knew the answer, would I tell you?
The conventional politics is that a lower stock market helps Obama and hurts Republicans. Probably this is true, but so far the year is not running true to form. Republicans should have no chance whatsoever, given President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war's lack of broad-based public support and the economic slowdown.
However, the conventional choice of Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney didn't hapen, and now McCain has upset the apple cart again with his selection of a running mate in the person Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. She is wildly popular with values voters and has changed the chemistry of the race.
It's too early to tell, but seemingly Obama got very little bounce out of the Democratic convention, trumped by the Palin announcement. Her appeal to Rust Belt, gun-toting hunters is sterling, and to a lesser extent, snubbed women voters backing Clinton.
With all the bad economic news, Obama would be the conventional beneficiary, but 2008 is proving to be a very unconventional year.
It hasn't been a real rippy-dippy year in the Stock Market anyway, and the last week makes it much worse. There are always jitters at elecction time, and this will be the shortest presidential campaign in history, with just 60 days left until the election. Then the stock market will settle down at some level or another.
I'm no stock picker or market timer, but at some point investors will find stocks cheap and leap back into the market and it will go up. Are we at such a bottom right now? If I knew the answer, would I tell you?
The conventional politics is that a lower stock market helps Obama and hurts Republicans. Probably this is true, but so far the year is not running true to form. Republicans should have no chance whatsoever, given President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war's lack of broad-based public support and the economic slowdown.
However, the conventional choice of Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney didn't hapen, and now McCain has upset the apple cart again with his selection of a running mate in the person Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. She is wildly popular with values voters and has changed the chemistry of the race.
It's too early to tell, but seemingly Obama got very little bounce out of the Democratic convention, trumped by the Palin announcement. Her appeal to Rust Belt, gun-toting hunters is sterling, and to a lesser extent, snubbed women voters backing Clinton.
With all the bad economic news, Obama would be the conventional beneficiary, but 2008 is proving to be a very unconventional year.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
McCain's speech very strong
Perhaps John McCain didn't hit the home run his running mate Sarah Palin did last night, but his speech was strong, positive and showed him to be very statesman-like, looking and sound like a President. He is not, and never will be Mr. Charisma and Charm, but came across warmly and professionally.
His minor jabs at Obama left a good impression, and his specifics about the economy, Republican failings in recent years, Iraq, energy policy, opportunity and the future set a good tone.
The CBS poll shows he and Obama tied going into the speech tonight, which is much stronger than anyone expected at this point. He and Palin look well positioned at the start of the campaign, and with Arnold Schwartzenegger's man Steve Schmidt leading the way, there is reason for hope. The Democrats will continue to control Congress, but the GOP team may well eek out a respectable victory. McCain's base in the Republican Party and with the Christian Right is very strong and energized, as it hasn't been since Reagan.
This is a seminal, change election, with no incumbent on either ticket for the first time in decades, and we will wind up with either a Black president or female vice president for the first time ever.
It is going to be an exciting fall.
His minor jabs at Obama left a good impression, and his specifics about the economy, Republican failings in recent years, Iraq, energy policy, opportunity and the future set a good tone.
The CBS poll shows he and Obama tied going into the speech tonight, which is much stronger than anyone expected at this point. He and Palin look well positioned at the start of the campaign, and with Arnold Schwartzenegger's man Steve Schmidt leading the way, there is reason for hope. The Democrats will continue to control Congress, but the GOP team may well eek out a respectable victory. McCain's base in the Republican Party and with the Christian Right is very strong and energized, as it hasn't been since Reagan.
This is a seminal, change election, with no incumbent on either ticket for the first time in decades, and we will wind up with either a Black president or female vice president for the first time ever.
It is going to be an exciting fall.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Palin hits a home run
Having just turned off Sarah Palin's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, I can make several observations:
1. She was strong and confident, tough but charming. Democrats are going to have their hands full, messing with her.
2. She said it all with her joke about hockey moms--the only difference between a Pit Bull and a Hockey Mom is the lipstick.
3. She demonstrated outstanding grasp of the energy issues, and heavily exploited her experience and knowledge in the oil rich state of Alaska. She was very effective talking about the $40 billion natural gas pipeline she signed the deal to build.
4. She shone brightly compared to the speakers ahead of her--Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliana and even Mike Huckabee. Huck was funny and the most effective of the trio, but didn't light up the crowd like Palin. Romney never caught fire, just like his presidential campaign, and Giuliani may have pushed the bounds of good taste in going after Obama.
Palin really comes across as Every Woman, warts and all. A lot of Americans can relate to that. She will give Obama and Biden fits, trying to figure you how to handle her, without destroying themselves in the process.
1. She was strong and confident, tough but charming. Democrats are going to have their hands full, messing with her.
2. She said it all with her joke about hockey moms--the only difference between a Pit Bull and a Hockey Mom is the lipstick.
3. She demonstrated outstanding grasp of the energy issues, and heavily exploited her experience and knowledge in the oil rich state of Alaska. She was very effective talking about the $40 billion natural gas pipeline she signed the deal to build.
4. She shone brightly compared to the speakers ahead of her--Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliana and even Mike Huckabee. Huck was funny and the most effective of the trio, but didn't light up the crowd like Palin. Romney never caught fire, just like his presidential campaign, and Giuliani may have pushed the bounds of good taste in going after Obama.
Palin really comes across as Every Woman, warts and all. A lot of Americans can relate to that. She will give Obama and Biden fits, trying to figure you how to handle her, without destroying themselves in the process.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Where was this Fred Thompson a year ago?
Tonight at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, former Tennessee Senator and Law and Order star Fred Thompson delivered the keynote address.
He was animated, alive and delivered a real stemwinder, blasting Barack Obama, and playing up John McCain and Sarah Palin. He was very effective, both on television and in the hall. in front of the GOP base.
Thompson has always had this ability, and displayed it numerous times in being elected and re-elected to the U.S. Senate from Tennessee. There were times when he rose up and took a leadership position on some issue in the Senate, but most of the time he was just going through the motions, a very diffident, lackadaisical solon, at best.
So it was with his ill-fated presidential campaign last year. Some said his best speech was his withdrawl speech. Fred was laconic on the stump, ill-prepared and seemingly very unconcerned. He just walked through the debates, frequently unprepared and uninspiring. It seemed like his young trophy second wife wanted badly to be first lady, but that he was just going through the motions, to please her but not have to serve as President.
We Fredheads (As his backers were known) are asking, after watching him at the GOP convention tonight "Where was this Fred Thompson a year ago?"
He was animated, alive and delivered a real stemwinder, blasting Barack Obama, and playing up John McCain and Sarah Palin. He was very effective, both on television and in the hall. in front of the GOP base.
Thompson has always had this ability, and displayed it numerous times in being elected and re-elected to the U.S. Senate from Tennessee. There were times when he rose up and took a leadership position on some issue in the Senate, but most of the time he was just going through the motions, a very diffident, lackadaisical solon, at best.
So it was with his ill-fated presidential campaign last year. Some said his best speech was his withdrawl speech. Fred was laconic on the stump, ill-prepared and seemingly very unconcerned. He just walked through the debates, frequently unprepared and uninspiring. It seemed like his young trophy second wife wanted badly to be first lady, but that he was just going through the motions, to please her but not have to serve as President.
We Fredheads (As his backers were known) are asking, after watching him at the GOP convention tonight "Where was this Fred Thompson a year ago?"
Monday, September 1, 2008
Liberals fit to be tied
As Barack Obama's post-convention bounced never occurred or evaporated--take your choice--liberals are starting to panic. The uncoordinated, scattergun approach to what to do about McCain, and particularly his running mate Sarah Palin, shows desperation and uncertainty.
The Zogby poll shows McCain and Palin two points ahead--when a winning Democrat normally comes out of his convention with a 10-15 point bounce, a cushion to get them through the fall. They are apoplectic.
Former national chairman Don Fowler said Hurricane Gustav is a "gift from God." It is, but not as Fowler thinks. Instead of disrupting the GOP national convention, it is legitimately keeping George Bush and Dick Cheney away to take care of hurricane business, allowing the party to look very humanitarian in raising money for disaster relief and eschewing partisan politics. We don't know how the rest of the week will play out, but so far so good.
The only real negative is the protestors, who the Denver police had under control at the Democratic convention in their city, but are much more violent in St. Paul, throwing bleach at the Connecticut delegation, resulting in 80 arrests in one day--when Denver barely broke 100 for the week.
McCain and Palin look much more the change than Obama and his tired old-Washington-hand veep nominee, Joe Biden. The right is rallying around Palin in supporting her pregnant unmarried daughter, proving her anti-abortion credentials not once, but twice. This has forced Obama to declare family members off limits--ordering his staff not to politicize Palin's daughter.
It still looks like the perfect storm to this blog, with McCain having things well in hand.
The Zogby poll shows McCain and Palin two points ahead--when a winning Democrat normally comes out of his convention with a 10-15 point bounce, a cushion to get them through the fall. They are apoplectic.
Former national chairman Don Fowler said Hurricane Gustav is a "gift from God." It is, but not as Fowler thinks. Instead of disrupting the GOP national convention, it is legitimately keeping George Bush and Dick Cheney away to take care of hurricane business, allowing the party to look very humanitarian in raising money for disaster relief and eschewing partisan politics. We don't know how the rest of the week will play out, but so far so good.
The only real negative is the protestors, who the Denver police had under control at the Democratic convention in their city, but are much more violent in St. Paul, throwing bleach at the Connecticut delegation, resulting in 80 arrests in one day--when Denver barely broke 100 for the week.
McCain and Palin look much more the change than Obama and his tired old-Washington-hand veep nominee, Joe Biden. The right is rallying around Palin in supporting her pregnant unmarried daughter, proving her anti-abortion credentials not once, but twice. This has forced Obama to declare family members off limits--ordering his staff not to politicize Palin's daughter.
It still looks like the perfect storm to this blog, with McCain having things well in hand.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)