Desperate Dems grasping at straws

The national news media is doing its best to keep Barack Obama positioned in the presidential race, but it may be a losing battle. Despite polls such as the CNN composite "poll of polls" showing the race with John McCain within a point or two, state polls in key battlegrounds are not nearly so accomodating.

The race is decided in the Electoral College, not the popular vote, and McCain is running like a trojan in key Democratic strongholds, where President Bush never did win. In Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, McCain is well within the margin of error in local polls. If he and Obama each carry just the states Bush and Kerry did four years ago, and McCain carries any one of these states, he wins the election.

There isn't much danger of Obama carrying any major Bush states. McCain is running strong in states Obama likes to claim he is fighting in: Virginia, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. Sarah Palin solidified McCain's base and then some, greatly narrowly what little chance Obama had in these states. I'm glad to see the media paint Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada as deciding the election, so we get to see the candidates in here so often.

However, if McCain carries any one of the big Democratic states he is within striking distance of, these smaller Western states won't matter. In fact, its folly to think that neighbor John McCain, who's home state of Arizona borders these three states, would lose all three. There's a greater likelihood he'll carry all three.

The economic crisis really isn't playing out in Obama's favor. The Democrats in Congress do not dare politicize the legislation coming through this week to deal with it, as the public is accepting that it is a dire national emergency and that action is needed urgently.

The elephant in the room, which nobody except me is brave enough to talk about, is that Black Democratic candidates usually run about 5% behind what the polls show, as a lot of white folks talk a good game to pollsters, but their prejudices come out in the secrecy of the voting booth. If this proves to be true, Obama needs to show up at least 5% better in the polls than McCain. Ask Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, if he were still alive, about his campaign for Governor and former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder about his narrow win, after leading stealthily in the polls.

As they say, its never over 'til its over--but McCain looks like a pretty good bet at this juncture.