Monday, August 4, 2008

Veep speculation best part

Short of committing a serious error in selection of a vice presidential running mate, a rare occurance, the most helpful a potential veep is to electing his ticket is right now.

Even Sprio Agnew helped elect Richard Nixon twice. His shady past did not lead to his resignation until after being re-elected to a second term. Vice President Dick Cheney, roundly unpopular now, was very helpful in adding heft to the ticket with President Bush in his two victories. But did these men make a difference in the outcome of the election? Probably not.

Favorable mention as a possible running mate builds chits for later redemption for the presidential candidate. Rarely does a vice president carry a state that decides the election. It is easily forgotton by the liberal press, but the Clinton-Gore ticket lost Al Gore's home state of Tennessee in both elections.

Barack Obama is mentioning Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as a running mate, figuring he could help carry the normally GOP state of Virginia for the ticket. Kaine was only narrowly elected governor over a flawed GOP nominee, and is not all that popular as he faces a tough re-election campaign in two years.

McCain is trumpeting Mitt Romney for vice president, but he didn't even run for re-election as Governor of Massachusetts, it was so likely he would lose. Would he carry the state now for McCain? Highly unlikely. Some say he might help carry his home state of Michigan, where his father was a popular governor, but his mother lost a U.S. race there. McCain also builds up Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a crucial state in the election. But Pawlenty was only narrowly re-elected and has a marginal approval rating in the polls as governor. It's dubiou he could help McCain carry the state.

The point is, all this talk builds up the people being talked about, that their party thinks enough of them to be considered--but when the actual vice presidential nominee is chosen, he sinks out of sight and rarely influences the actual election-- positively or negatively.

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