Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hillary's pyrrhic Pennsylvania win

Hillary Clinton scored a decent win in the Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania by about 8%--but the real question is, does it really mean anything?

The conventional wisdom is that she is too far behind Obama to win the Democratic nomination. Pennsylvania will only close the gap a little bit, as the arcane Democratic rules virtually split the delegates in every state in half. That's why the party's in the mess it is, that even a decisive win by one candidate or the other really doesn't change things very much.

The news media has carefully avoided saying anything about Rush Limbaugh and his Operation Chaos, which saw some 170,000 Republicans re-register as Democrats in order to vote for Hillary. If Hillary wins the state's popular vote by any less than 170,000 votes, that means the Republican switchers put her over the top, right? I don't want to turn blue, so I won't hold my breath waiting for the news media to admit that.

The real significance of the Pennsylvania vote is, that it means the chaos will go on in the Democratic contest. The win encouraged Hillary enough to stay in the race for the Indiana and North Carolina primaries--and probably well beyond that, on in to the convenion in August in Denver. There is no over-arching leadership in the Democratic Party with enough power to force a premature decision on the party, so this is the most likely outcome.

As a Republican, I'm glad to see the fight go on. Congratulations, Hillary!

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