Wednesday, April 16, 2008

McCain strongest outside GOP constitutencies

The conservative wing of the Republican Party has been in an "anybody but McCain" mode from the get-go, and the perceptible lack of enthusiasm for him even now, as the presumptive nominee, is palpable.

At the same time, McCain is running strong against either Obama or Hillary in the polls in rust belt and eastern states the GOP hasn't carried in years. If he were to actually win by carrying non-traditional GOP states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, he will be even less beholden to the most recent party conservative power base. This will make him even more of a middle-of-the-road president than most of us had feared.

That isn't to say that he isn't still light years ahead of Obama or Hillary in conservative's eyes, or probably even better than the likely Libertarian candidate, former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr. But unless it is amply demonstrated to McCain and his people that the GOP base brought him home, his well-documented proclivities for working with liberals like Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold and Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy will be become even more pronounced.

I'm not yet ready to join a segment of conservatives who actually believe it would be good to have four years of a Jimmy Carter-like Obama to bring the GOP back to united conservative roots, but based on today's polling data, a McCain victory would not bode well for conservatives.

The maverick, independent streak that has made McCain so popular with the press and older "patriotic" voters among unaffiliated and Democratic voters, cuts both ways and may wind up disappointing everyone.

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