He wouldn't admit it at a press conference or anything, but Barack Obama is glad Hillary Clinton is staying in the face until at least after the June 3 primaries. The numbers say Obama about has the nomination sewed up, barring an Eliot Spitzer-type revelation.
But the next primaries are in Kentucky and West Virginia, states where Hillary runs well. If she dropped out now, Barack would face the embarrassing spector John McCain now faces in primaries: even though he's the only candidate running, a candidate or two still on the ballot pulls a big vote, showing how split your party is.
In last week's North Carolina and Indiana primaries, both Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul were still on the ballot and each scored in the teens, even though McCain has had the nomination sewed up for months. This shows that McCain still has a lot of work to do to consolidate his base in the GOP, let alone reach out to conservative Democrats and Independents he'll need to win the fall campaign.
Hill would still be on the ballot in Kentucky and West Virginia, even if she dropped out now, and would undoubtedly embarrass Obama with a big vote in those primaries, even though he's the nominee. With her still in the race, he can concede those primaries, telling everyone she's going to win them, so expectations for him are low. They're too small a states to turn things around for Hillary, so really represent no threat to Obama.
Obama picked up 9 superdelegates today alone, making him even more inevitable as the Democratic nominee. With the weird way party rules split the delegates no matter who wins a primary, there is no winner ahead of the national convention in Denver in August. Strangely, the 20% of the delegates who are "superdelegates" will determine the outcome.
These are un-elected delegates, holding their post either by appointment of their state party or due to the office they hold. That means the old party hacks still are in control, determining the outcome rather than elected delegates chosen in primaries or caucuses, just like in the old brokered coventions, manipulated in the smoke-filled backrooms.
At the GOP confab, every single delegate is elected at a party convention, primary or caucus. The choice is truly up to the people, not the party hacks.
Friday, May 9, 2008
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