Despite all the doom and gloom about Republican prospects in the 2008 election, John McCain, the presumptive nominee, runs even or ahead of both Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Some 50% of Americans believe McCain's policies would be substantially different from the Bush administration, despite how hard the Democrats try to tie McCain to Bush. His maverick streak, his reputation for straight talk and demonstrated ability to reach across the political aisle to cut deals with Democrats, leave McCain in a strong position with independent voters.
In fact, McCain's weakest area is with traditional Republican activists and voters. If McCain were able to shore up his ties to the party base, a landslide could be in the offing.
Despite attempts by Democratic chairman Howard Dean to paper it over, the Clinton-Obama feud is splitting the party, and leaving deep enough wounds that there is legitimate concern for party unity, come November. And it might get worse before it gets better. In today's Guam caucuses, where Obama was supposed to win big, he squeaked to victory by 7 votes.
The polls in next Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries show Clinton gaining and Obama struggling. If she wins both primaries, it will mean Obama hasn't won a primary since Feb. 22 and the fight will go on. The Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy is definitely dragging Obama down, and he looks tired and worn because of it. Seemingly Hillary has gotton her second wind, and looks fresh and energetic.
Baring some cataclysmic event, which certainly is possible, the fall presidential election looks like a horse race.
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