Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Obama and Hillary's revenge?

Two demographic trends could converge, to create a very bright outlook for John McCain in the 2008 election. This is particularly true if, as Hillary hinted in her Ohio speech, she and Obama wind up on the same ticket.

One is that McCain's age might turn out to be a real advantage. 2008 could be the last gasp push of the baby boomers and elderly to vote in major numbers, as the last big opportunity to maintain control, before Obama's generation takes over. McCain's war record in Vietnam and hard line anti-terrorism views will contrast so sharply with Obama and Hillary that the seniors and baby boomers will create a monolithic block of voters for McCain that will be hard to stop.

Secondly, left out of all the calculations in Hillary and Obama's campaigns are the 40 and over white males. This heavily blue collar group are the working men of the American economy, and have not bought in to the idea of either a black or a female president. If they are paired on the Democratic ticket, this is a real danger. Either one might be able to select a traditional white male vice presidential candidate and at least split this block. Together they won't.

McCain, with his war record and blunt talking image, could have tailor-made appeal to 40 and over white males. When this group is combined with the oldsters mentioned above, a relative landslide could be in the making.

Youthful new voters have turned out in droves so far this year at caucuses and primary elections for Obama. They don't traditionally show up and vote at this early stage in their lives. The disappointment of Obama winding up number two or not on the ticket at all, could keep them home in November, and increase the clout of the oldsters and blue collar men.

We conservatives can only fervently hope Obama and Hillary don't figure this out too soon.

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