While all the polls continue to predict an Obama victory in the presidential race, there are at least two things wrong this year, that probably render the polls inaccurate and unreliable.
Precinct worker after precinct worker continues to report that people won't put out yard signs or put on bumper stickers for McCain this year, winking to the worker and saying "of course we're voting for McCain, but we can't afford to risk publicly showing it." Voters are spooked about publicly opposing America's first Black major party nominee.
This also is skewing the polls, as people lie to the poll taker. They are hyper-sensitive about appearing racist. The safest thing to do is lie, and say "Obama" when they ask. This is a lot different situation than what voters will face in the privacy of the voting booth or at their kitchen table filling out their mail-in ballot. The so-called Bradley Effect is real, and no amount of liberal press wishful thinking will make it go away. Black candidates always run worse than the polls show, particularly in high profile races like President of the United States--and it is named after the loss Black Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles suffered for the California governorship, when the polls showed him leading convincingly.
The second factor that is becoming increasingly crucial in polling today, is the extent to which cell phones are taking over from land lines. There is no directory of cell phone numbers. A lot of people have them precisely for that reason. Pollsters find it increasingly difficult to get people to answer poll questions at all, and those they're able to reach are not a true cross-section of the American populace.
Of all years, 2008 has proven to provide the diciest polling atmosphere in history. At least John McCain hopes so.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
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