John McCain and Sarah Palin have put all their apples in the Ohio and Pennsylvania baskets. McCain did six rallies today in Ohio and Palin has made similar appearances in Pennsylvania. They will continue through the weekend.
It is highly unlikely that they can win without carrying both states. If they carry both states, they can afford to lose Virginia or a couple of small western states like Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada.
There are no polls showing them ahead at this late date in any of these states. What the late polls do show is that the ticket is closing strong, and at least a couple of polls, including the esteemed Gallup Poll, put them within two points of Obama nationally.
At this point, several factors could break McCain's way. One is that voters under 25 to do not traditionally make voting a high priority. This is where Obama is strongest. Senior citizens, where McCain is strongest, vote--come hell or high water.
Another is that Hispanic voters are the least accurately polled bloc of voters. McCain should be strong with Hispanic voters. He was on their side in the immigration debate, supporting and introducing amnesty legislation. If he runs more strongly than the polls show with this bloc, it could help him carry Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
The special interest groups, particularly the National Rifle Association and the National Right to Life, are suddenly running hard line anti-Obama commercials. This should pull White Catholics and rural hunters--both crucial blocs of voters in carrying Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The election is tightening up on this final weekend, and some think there still could be a surprise come next Tuesday.
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