The Democratic National Committee's attempt to mediate the delegate-seating problems for Florida and Michigan at its August Denver national convention may yet blow up in its face.
Maybe Hillary Clinton, as rumored, will withdraw from the race tomorrow. But there's a big difference in terms of the November general election between a graceful, happy, unifying withdrawl--and an angry, forced surrender. The Obama team's actions on the Michigan vote could well make it the latter.
On his own volition, Obama's name did not appear on the Michigan primary ballot. The "compromise" reached at the DNC meeting over the weekend gives him over 40% of the Michigan delegates, based on ficticious "polling" data. The Clinton forces were mad as hornets. Both Flordia and Michigan will vote at half strength in Denver, as punishment for throwing their primaries in January, when the DNC had mandated no primaries before February, except Iowa and New Hampshire.
Florida is probably going for McCain regardless, but Michigan currently shows McCain with a big lead there over either Hillary or Obama, due primarily to the delegate problems with the DNC. There is no way, according to most data, for Obama to win the election without carrying Michigan, and his "compromise" on the delegates make that even less likely. No Republican has carried Michigan for president since Gerald Ford did it in 1976, so it would be a major loss for Obama.
Hillary won another huge victory in Puerto Rico Sunday over Obama by 25%, and will probably lose the last two primaries in Montana and South Dakota tomorrow. While Obama leads in delegates, until more Superdelegates commit, he's still short. In that closely-fought a race, it would behoove him to be more gracious, leaving Hillary a face-saving way out.
A power play like that executed on the Michigan delegates does not do that.
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